Two Lenses on Climate Risk: A Dual Macroeconomic Reading of the NGFS Short-Term Scenarios

The integration of climate-related risks into macroeconomic modelling is an area of growing importance for central banks and financial supervisors. The models used to generate our first vintage of short-term climate scenarios (released in May 2025) were new to most of the NGFS membership. In parallel to the modelling, the NGFS commissioned a second team to reproduce some of the narratives using the more familiar NiGEM model, already used in the NGFS long-term scenarios, to provide an additional assessment of the macrofinancial dynamics of the official results.