The notes provide detailed analyses of three NGFS scenarios: NetZero 2050 Scenario, the Current Policies Scenario, the Fragmented World Scenario go beyond the high-level results presented in the Phase V presentation deck released in November 2024 and offer users a closer look at individual scenario outcomes. In addition, an overarching note on energy investments across various scenarios provides further insights, helping users better understand and apply the NGFS long-term scenarios in their work.
Two additional notes address the increasingly important area of physical risks:
- Acute Physical Risks: This note, based on the Climate Impact Explorer (CIE) which is an openaccess tool developed in collaboration with the NGFS and updated in 2025, offers key insights into acute physical risks from climate change.
- Climate Tipping Points: This note provides an overview of the current state of scientific knowledge on tipping points and explores potential avenues for integrating these critical dynamics into future NGFS scenarios.
Sabine Mauderer, Chair of the NGFS and First Deputy Governor of the Deutsche Bundesbank:
“These notes mark an important step forward in improving the usability of our long-term scenarios. By fostering greater transparency and deeper understanding, we aim to equip users with the insights they need to further strengthen their climate risk management frameworks.”
Livio Stracca, Chair of the NGFS Workstream “Scenario Design and Analysis”, and Deputy Director
General Financial Stability at the European Central Bank:
“By improving the clarity, transparency, and usability of its scenarios, the NGFS continues to reinforce the global framework for assessing climate-related financial risks. Through active engagement with these resources and contributions to their ongoing development, the financial community plays a vital role in shaping the tools essential for navigating physical and transition risks effectively.”
About the NGFS
The Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), launched at the Paris One Planet Summit on 12 December 2017, is a group of central banks and supervisors, which on a voluntary basis is willing to share best practices and contribute to the development of environment and climate risk management in the financial sector, and to mobilize mainstream finance to support the transition toward a sustainable economy. The NGFS brings together 148 central banks and supervisors and 23 observers.
The NGFS is chaired by Sabine Mauderer, First Deputy Governor of the Deutsche Bundesbank, with the support of the Vice Chair, Fundi Tshazibana, Deputy Governor of the South African Reserve Bank and Chief Executive Officer of the Prudential Authority. The Secretariat, headed by Yann Marin, is provided by the Banque de France.
For more details, visit the NGFS website, LinkedIn account, and 2024 Annual Report, or contact the NGFS Secretariat at the Banque de France: sec.ngfs@banque-france.fr.
Press Office at the Banque de France: +33 (0) 1 42 92 39 00 / presse@banque-france.fr