NGFS Climate Scenarios for central banks and supervisors - Phase V

Notice to users of NGFS long-term climate scenarios

The NGFS informs users that the academic paper underpinning the physical risk estimates in Phase V of its long-term scenarios, Kotz et al. (2024), has received critiques in a post-publication review at Nature. The authors have revised their analysis, with limited impacts on results. The updated paper still has to undergo peer-review.

The NGFS closely monitors the academic process and will incorporate any necessary updates in future iterations of its long-term scenarios.

Users are reminded that neither the NGFS, nor its member institutions, nor any person acting on their behalf, is responsible or liable for any reliance on, or for any use of the NGFS scenarios and/or supplementary documentation. This also applies to the use of the data produced under the scenarios – see section 5 in https://data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/ngfs/#/license. Thus, while the NGFS climate scenarios are certainly a helpful tool, they do not alleviate the responsibility of users, including banks and other (financial) organisations, to design and implement their own risk management frameworks.