NGFS IIASA Scenario Explorer
This web-based user interface provides intuitive visualisations and display of the transition scenarios time series data. This database also includes macro-economic data from the National Institute Global Econometric Model (NiGEM) as well as data on the impact of physical risks on GDP.
The scenario data is available for download as xlsx or csv files via the Transition Scenario Explorer, hosted by IIASA. Alternatively, the data can be accessed via a RestAPI or the open-source Python package pyam.
NGFS CA Climate Impact Explorer
This web-based user interface provides intuitive visualisations and display of the physical scenarios time series data. Extended sets of physical data can be found in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) database. As a community-driven climate-impacts modelling initiative, ISIMIP offers a consistent framework for cross-sectoral, cross-scale modelling of the impacts of climate change.
The scenario data is available for download via the Climate Impact Explorer, hosted by Climate Analytics. Alternatively, the data can be accessed via an API.
Scenarios Sensitivity Analysis to Macroeconomic Policy Assumptions
The role of macroeconomic policy assumptions in NGFS scenarios has attracted a lot of attention, as they are part of the narratives which conditions the climate scenarios. The set of policy settings has therefore been carefully explored in order to design the policy conditionality of the Phase III scenarios. Moreover, to assess the sensitivity of the results to assumptions related to fiscal and monetary policy, this document also reports an analysis conducted through the lens of the NiGEM model, giving alternative scenarios according to different policy options.
Scenario analysis for acute physical risks in EMDEs
This note aims to complement existing climate risk assessment literature and provides a practical framework for central banks and supervisors in EMDEs for assessing climate physical risks with extreme weather events. This note includes references and links to data sources and tools with good global coverage, which can be very useful for EMDES. A large majority of data sources and tools used for risk assessment in developed countries have low coverage in some EMDEs or require granular input datasets that are not yet available in EMDEs. Building on a series of case studies in EMDEs, this note proposes a practical framework and illustrates how to complete a climate physical risk assessment by leveraging existing data and tools.
Code RepositoryThis web-based user interface provides a suite of tools and functions for analyzing and visualizing input data (i.e., assumptions/parametrization) and results (model output) of the scenarios. It enables simple analysis of timeseries data in the IAMC format, with an interface similar in feel & style to the widely used pandas –DataFrame–, but also advanced visualization and plotting functions with features for scripted validation & processing of scenario data and results.
Technical DocumentationThis document provides technical information on the two datasets constituting the NGFS reference scenarios. One dataset includes transition pathways and data on macro-economic impacts from physical risks, both of which available in the NGFS Scenario Explorer provided by IIASA. The other dataset covers the physical impact data collected by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). For each dataset, the most important technical details of the underlying academic work and a short user guide are provided.
NGFS Scenarios presentationThese slides provide a high level description of the NGFS Scenarios. It includes a description of the main assumptions and highlights the main results regarding transition risks, physical risks and economic impacts.
NGFS Guide to Scenario AnalysisThis pdf format document provides an introduction to scenario analysis. It is not aligned on the current set of NGFS Scenarios hereinabove, but on the first set of NGFS scenarios published in June 2020.
NGFS Scenarios in ActionThis pdf format document sets out how 31 NGFS members are using climate scenarios to identify, assess and understand climate risks in their economies and financial systems.
SENSES ToolkitThis interactive interface offers a range of modules to learn about and explore climate change scenarios. There are modules adapted to newcomers as well as numerous expert level modules on various topics such as power-sector risks, the role of land for food production and climate protection, and investments opportunities and alignment.
TCFD’s work on scenario analysisThe Financial Stability Board (FSB) created the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) to improve and increase reporting of climate-related financial information. This task force has provided in 2020 a Technical Supplement regarding the use of scenario analysis in disclosure of climate-related risks and opportunities. Additionally, an online hub was set up with a wide range of tools and information related to scenario analysis.
UNEP FI’s work on scenario analysisThe United Nations Environmental Program Finance Initiative (UNEP FI) has developed numerous tools, methodologies, and guides aimed at empowering banks to better disclose and manage climate-related risks. Those include work relating to scenario analysis, recommendations on integrated assessment models and the changing regulatory landscape.
Running the NGFS Scenarios in G-Cubed: A Tale of Two Modelling Frameworks
The NGFS is constantly exploring new ways to enhance the scenarios and deepen the technical capabilities on which they are based. The G-Cubed pilot project was commissioned in 2021 to understand whether the G-Cubed general equilibrium model could be used to expand the sectoral coverage of the existing NGFS scenario pathways. Such sectoral pathways would enrich the analytical depth of the NGFS scenarios, enabling users to explore how the physical and transition risk narratives could unfold within particular areas of the real economy and within an increased number of world regions.
While divergences in the results generated by the G-Cubed model and the existing NGFS models mean that we cannot incorporate the sectoral breakdown into our NGFS scenarios at this stage, the G-Cubed model undoubtedly provides a rich set of insights. We have therefore made the scenarios and data generated by this exercise available below.
Climate Policy Relevant Sectors
The Climate Policy Relevant Sectors (CPRS) is a classification of economic activities to assess climate transition risk. The CPRS classification, which has been refined over the years, has been widely used by practitioners and policy makers to assess investors’ exposure to climate transition risk, and now the updated CPRS Granular enable also to map NACE codes into the IAM variables used in the NGFS climate scenarios.