According to the business leaders surveyed (approximately 8,500 companies and establishments surveyed between 27 August and 3 September), while industrial activity picked up in August, growth was generally weaker than forecast last month in a number of sectors. Similarly, in the services and construction sectors, activity continued to grow but was hampered by adverse weather events in the accommodation food services sector and in construction, which, nonetheless, continued to be buoyed by the finishing works sector.
Industrial production continued to be underpinned by capital goods and transport equipment, which were supported by the defence industry and the construction of data centres.
Cash positions remained negative in both industry and services, with significant sectoral disparities in each.
Based on a textual analysis of business leaders’ comments, following a downward trend in recent months, the uncertainty indicator edged up in market services and construction: business leaders are concerned about the political climate, which is encouraging a wait-and-see approach, and fear potential operational risks linked to the implementation of the electronic invoicing reform.
For September, business leaders anticipate a higher rate of growth in industrial activity (partly due to a catch-up effect in sectors affected by the heatwave) and services, and stable growth in construction (where order books remain thin). However, the expected upturn in industry should be viewed with caution, as business leaders are finding it harder than usual to forecast their business activity, even in the short term.
Raw material prices remained under pressure, while selling prices in manufacturing and construction continued to fall due to intense competition, without having returned to pre-Middle East conflict levels. In the services sector, prices rose by a slightly higher rate than last month, particularly in transport and storage, reflecting the rise in fuel prices.
Based on the survey results, supplemented by other indicators, we estimate that GDP should grow by 0.1% in the third quarter.
